Last night was another gritty, hard fought win for the Dodgers. They lost a lead, and then came back to win it in the 10th. Matt Kemp had a great looking opposite field single to win it. Things just keep on rolling for the boys in blue. They’ve only lost four series all season long and have not yet lost three consecutive games. They boast the best record in the big leagues and in extra-inning games they are now 6-1. They’ve won big, they’ve won small. They’ve won gritty. It’s been a very enjoyable first two and a half months.
In about the eighth inning several conversations I’ve had with Niel and Yoon over the last couple weeks swirled then settled, something clicked and I started getting nervous. This team has a startling number of similarities to the 2008-2009 Cleveland Cavaliers.
Before I get started, I’m going to throw out two huge disclaimers. One: I do not presume anything to be “locked up,” “in the bag,” or “over.” We’re not even to the All-Star Break yet. Two: Congratulations to the Lakers on winning the title. L.O. and Trevor, I hope you pass up the big bucks to come back and defend the title. I know that’s not a disclaimer, but I had to add it.
Okay, here are the similarities:
1. Led by a huge star.
The LeBron-Manny comparisons are tricky, considering the limited impact one every day player can have in baseball, Manny’s association with PEDs, and the age difference. But look at it simply; these teams are both led by a mega-star.
2. Great home record.
The Dodgers are 24-9 at home, the Cavs went 39-2 in the regular season.
3. Best overall regular-season record.
Disclaimer at work here, it is still very early. But at this point of the season, this describes both clubs.
4. Play in the weaker conference/league.
It’s true the Cavs, Celtics, and Magic posted good records, but after that the Eastern Conference was clearly an inferior conference. The NL is not-so-affectionately referred to by Bill Simmons, ESPN’s The Sports Guy as quadruple-A. And don’t get me started on the NL West.
5. Early favorites.
Most people picked LeBron’s Cavs to play in or win the Finals this year. The Dodgers are currently Vegas’s odds-on favorites.
6. Flawed supporting cast.
I wouldn’t besmirch the name of the Dodgers by comparing them to sack of junk LeBron dragged along behind him into the Eastern Conference Finals, but they are flawed. The pitching staff shows holes both in the starting rotation and in the bullpen. Not to mention that a number of Dodger starters are injury prone (Wolf, Kuroda, Milton) or have had limited innings in past years (okay, just Kershaw here, but he’s kind of our great hope so that counts for something, right?), or were pulled off the scrap heap (Milton, Weaver). The bullpen has been shaky as well.
I know it’s early in the season yet, and I really shouldn’t be writing this until Aug. 1 (the day after the trade deadline), but a large reason the Cavs didn’t reach their potential and win it all was that they refused to leverage an expiring contract to improve the team. Their philosophy was clearly, “Why mess with what’s working?”
This makes sense up to a certain point and, ultimately, that’s what worries me. If August rolls around and the Dodgers are still humming along, bolstered by the return of Manny, it might be too easy to look at the team and say, “Things are going great. We can save a bit of money and not make a move.” Owner Frank McCourt was very public with his complaints about low revenue last year, even giving up an extra rising prospect just to save $2 million in the Casey Blake trade. I wouldn’t put it past him to try on this excuse for size.
There are a few reasons why that would be a mistake:
1. A pitching flaw is guaranteed to show up in the playoffs.
Year after year we see it happen. A great offensive team goes cold in the playoffs, and pitching either rises to the occasion and carries them to the next level or sends them whimpering into the off-season. Take a look at the 2008 Dodgers post-season for a sound example.
2. With the economy in its current state, a deal can be found.
Why make a deal? The better question is why not make a deal? There will be players available. The prices should be bargain basement. You have the money (and we know you do Mr. McCourt!), you’re in sunny southern California, and your team is in a solid position in the standings. Better to have an insurance pitcher or two than have Randy Wolf’s arm fly off at the elbow on Aug. 2 to grave repercussions (not just for those on hand).
3. Facing the elite of the AL will be a big jump.
It’s one thing to beat the Rangers in a series in June, or beat up on the re-building NL West. It’s going to be an entirely different thing to face the Red Sox, Yankees, or Rays (none of which the Dodgers face in the regular season) with a full head of steam. You need every weapon you can find for that fight, and a bit of luck as well.
This is my plea to Ned Colletti and Frank McCourt: Spend the money, the minor-leaguers, whatever it takes (without disrupting the major league club chemistry, of course) to get a front line starter and bullpen help. You will be rewarded with our dollars at the ticket office, the concession stand, the souvenir booth, and all the memorabilia the occasion provides. If you make the move, we will come.
And so will the best chance we’ve had in 20 years to end this season like our local NBA counterparts. Not the team in Cleveland.
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